The Business Cycle Dependent Fluctuation of Employment in Sectors in Polish Economy

Aleksandra Gaweł

Ekonomia journal, 2004, vol. 12

Abstract: One of the factors determining the number of employed workers is the business cycle. From theoretical point of view during the bettering (worsening) phase of the business cycle the number of employees increases (decreases). Creation and reduction of posts enterprises is the cause of the flow of workers between employment in different firms and branches of economy. The main aim of the paper is the evaluation of business cycle influence on the number employees in Poland in the period 1993-2002. Research was done both into employment in enterprise sector in general and employment in particular branches of economy such as manufacturing, construction, trade and repair, transport, storage and communication and real estate and business activities. The results allow to suppose that in Poland the fluctuation in the number of employed workers is influenced by the business cycle, but this influence is not very strong. Fluctuation in employment is pro-cyclical, which means that improvement (worsening) of the business cycle influences the growth (decline) of employment. It was also observed that there are some time leads between reference cycle and employment. Employment is a lagging variable, which means that changes in the number of employees are lagged in relation to changes in the overall business cycle, usually with approximately 1 year of lag.

Date: 2004
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