Detrimental Policy of the Real Appreciation of the Zloty

Witold Bień

Ekonomia journal, 2002, vol. 7

Abstract: The level of Polish export is very low. The returns on this account per one inhabitant are about 820 USD, whereas in the European Union countries they are seven times larger. The decisive influence upon such a serious underdevelopment of the Polish export was exerted by the policy leading to an increase of the real value of the zloty relative to foreign currencies, supported by the keeping of a very high level of real interest rates. This is clearly confirmed by the presented in the article analysis of the mutual co-dependence of the dynamics of export and the nominal currency rates of exchange in the years 1993-2001.

A particularly negative influence on the magnitude of export was exerted by the exceptionally high appreciation of the zloty in the years 2000Ś2001, which occurred after the full liquidation of the currency rate of exchange. The creation of conditions for the activation of export requires therefore the restoration of a defined band of permissible fluctuations of the rate of exchange, after the transgression of which there would follow the intervention of the National Bank of Poland in order to bring back the value of the zloty to the internal band.

Date: 2002
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