Aumento del nivel del mar en la costa vasca: una aproximación probabilística

Elisa Sainz de Murieta, Luis María Abadie and Ibon Galarraga
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Elisa Sainz de Murieta: Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3) Grantham Research Institute (LSE)
Luis María Abadie: Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3)

EKONOMIAZ. Revista vasca de Economía, 2018, vol. 94, issue 02, 324-344

Abstract: Due to climate change, sea-level rise poses a major threat to the Basque coast. In this study we assess the average sea-level rise under three emission scenarios in eleven municipalities of the Basque coast. We also estimate two risk measures that describe low-probability, highdamage events. Our results by 2050 show average sea-level increases in 21-29 cm and significantly larger extreme values, ranging between 35 and 45 cm at the 95th percentile and 40-52 cm at the average of 5% worst cases. This information could be very relevant to inform climate change adaptation policies and measures, as it allows managing risk more effectively, in line with the approaches used in financial economics.

Keywords: aumento del nivel del mar; basque coast; climate risk; costa vasca; modelización estocástica; riesgo climático; sea-level rise; stochastic modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O44 Q51 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ekz:ekonoz:2018217

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