Tasa de interés neutral y política monetaria para México, 2020-2024

Armando Sánchez Vargas, Débora Martínez Ventura and Francisco López-Herrera ()
Additional contact information
Armando Sánchez Vargas: Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas-UNAM
Débora Martínez Ventura: Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas-UNAM

El Trimestre Económico, 2021, vol. 88 (1), issue 349, 201-218

Abstract: Given the uncertainty in this regard, this paper analyzes the most appropriate monetary policy position for Mexico, which aims to maintain the inflation objective without negatively affecting product growth. The value of the neutral interest rate in Mexico for the next five years is estimated based on Taylor’s rule and a co-integrated vector autoregression (VAR) model (CVAR). The results suggest that the monetary policy rate is above the neutral interest rate, which, combined with the potential international rate cut, could grant the central bank for almost the entire six-year period a degree of freedom to maintain its rate below the current level; in the short term the current monetary policy rate could be cut by at least 25 points without risking convergence to the inflation target.

Keywords: Neutral interest rate; monetary policy rate; Taylor’s rule; CVAR models. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 E47 E51 E52 E58 E61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.eltrimestreeconomico.com.mx/index.php/te/article/view/1002

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:elt:journl:v:88:y:2021:i:349:p:201-218

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Order print issues directly in our web page or with Guadalupe Galicia at Fondo de Cultura Económica, El Trimestre Económico, Carretera Picacho Ajusco 227, 2° piso, Col. Bosques del Pedregal, CP 14738, Tlalpan, Ciudad de México
http://www.eltrimestreeconomico.com.mx

DOI: 10.20430/ete.v88i349.1002

Access Statistics for this article

El Trimestre Económico is currently edited by Orlando Delgado Selley, Saúl Escobar Toledo, Jorge Isaac Egurrola and José Valenzuela Feijóo

More articles in El Trimestre Económico from Fondo de Cultura Económica
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Nuria Pliego Vinageras ().