Panorama macroeconómico cubano en el primer cuarto del siglo XXI: un análisis desde la perspectiva cuantitativa

Ana Laura Imbernó Díaz and Vilma Hidalgo de los Santos
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Ana Laura Imbernó Díaz: Universidad de La Habana
Vilma Hidalgo de los Santos: Universidad de La Habana

El Trimestre Económico, 2025, vol. 92 (3), issue 367, 609-642

Abstract: The Cuban macroeconomic environment during the last three decades has been characterized by a high vulnerability to external shocks, weak structural performance, rampant inflation with historical figures in recent years, the conflict between growth and balance of payments that leads to external liquidity tensions, the explosion of fiscal deficit, and volatility of the exchange rate. All these have led to an extremely complex current context that offers little room for maneuvering to implement a macroeconomic stabilization agenda. This article diagnoses the current macroeconomic horizon, by emphasizing the fiscal dilemma as a core factor of the stabilization program, and provides, through econometric modeling, the analysis of the behavior and persistence of the main macroeconomic aggregates, as well as the projection of scenarios that clarify the complex dilemma faced by economic policymakers.

Keywords: Scenario analysis; fiscal dilemma; macroeconomic stabilization; VAR. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C3 E6 O5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.20430/ete.v92i367.2619

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