Análisis coyuntural y prospectivo de la industria maquiladora de exportación mexicana

Francisco Javier Trívez Bielsa (), Angel Mauricio Reyes Terrón and Francisco Javier Aliaga Lordeman ()
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Francisco Javier Trívez Bielsa: Facultad de Ciencias Económicas,Universidad de Zaragoza.Gran Vía
Francisco Javier Aliaga Lordeman: Facultad de Ciencias Económicas,Universidad de Zaragoza.Gran Vía
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Francisco Javier Aliaga Lordemann

Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, 2008, vol. XVII, issue 1, 63-99

Abstract: The aim of the paper is to analyze the current situation and perspectives, both at the short run andmiddle run, of theMexican exportationmaquiladora industry. It is to combine quantitative economic conjuncture analysis with its principal components, that is, the empiric base (statistical information in monthly time series, in this case Mexican aggregated value of exports by maquila services in total national and regional levels in Mexico) and the quantitative methods (statistical-econometrics techniques). For this purpose we present a methodological proposal thatmodels the time series through ARIMAmodels with outliers and calendar effects, and next we use a reducedmodel-based procedure for the signal extraction of these time series. The trend cycle component is the appropriate way to analyze its underlying evolution. Using the concepts of underlying growth and inertia,we can extract themain conclusions for the current situation of the Mexican maquila sector, including the regional level.

Keywords: conjunctural analysis; signal extraction; underlying growth; ARIMA models; forecast. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C49 C53 L69 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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