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Comportamiento del tipo de cambio real y desempeño económico en México

Antonio Avalos and Fausto Hernandez-Trillo

Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, 1995, vol. IV, issue 2, 239-263

Abstract: An ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model is used to obtain the variances over time for the real exchange rata (RER) (peso/dollar) in Mexico. Then a model is constructed to establish the relationship between the RER variability and exports and Mexican GDP, respectively. A negative relationship is found which suggests that not only the level but the stability of the RER is important in explaining economic performance in an open economy. Furthermore, an alternative measure of RER misalignment is developed which, in turn, is shown to be negatively related with economic performance in Mexico. These results suggest that more stable exchange rate regimes should be adopted to create an environment suitable for economic growth.

Date: 1995
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Handle: RePEc:emc:ecomex:v:4:y:1995:i:2:p:239-263