The emotional cost-of-carry: Chinese investor sentiment and equity index futures basis

Song Cao, Ziran Li, Kees G. Koedijk and Xiang Gao

China Finance Review International, 2022, vol. 12, issue 3, 451-476

Abstract: Purpose - While the classic futures pricing tool works well for capital markets that are less affected by sentiment, it needs further modification in China's case as retail investors constitute a large portion of the Chinese stock market participants. Their expectations of the rate of return are prone to emotional swings. This paper, therefore, explores the role of investor sentiment in explaining futures basis changes via the channel of implied discount rates. Design/methodology/approach - Using Chinese equity market data from 2010 to 2019, the authors augment the cost-of-carry model for pricing stock index futures by incorporating the investor sentiment factor. This design allows us to estimate the basis in a better way that reflects the relationship between the underlying index price and its futures price. Findings - The authors find strong evidence that the measure of Chinese investor sentiment drives the abnormal fluctuations in the basis of China's stock index futures. Moreover, this driving force turns out to be much less prominent for large-cap stocks, liquid contracting frequencies, regulatory loosening periods and mature markets, further verifying the sentiment argument for basis mispricing. Originality/value - This study contributes to the literature by relying on investor sentiment measures to explain the persistent discount anomaly of index futures basis in China. This finding is of great importance for Chinese investors with the intention to implement arbitrage, hedging and speculation strategies.

Keywords: Investor sentiment; Equity index futures; Basis; Cost-of-carry model; G12; G13; G14; G41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.110 ... d&utm_campaign=repec (text/html)
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.110 ... d&utm_campaign=repec (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:cfripp:cfri-07-2021-0144

DOI: 10.1108/CFRI-07-2021-0144

Access Statistics for this article

China Finance Review International is currently edited by Professor Chongfeng Wu and Professor Haitao Li

More articles in China Finance Review International from Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Emerald Support ().