Are residential crimes the same? Evidence from the link between house prices and crime levels in South Africa

Omokolade Akinsomi, Kola Ijasan and Peterson Owusu Junior

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 2025, vol. 18, issue 7, 46-65

Abstract: PurposeOne main result of residential crimes is the sub-optimal allocation of homeownership, as demand and price of residential property respond accordingly. Since crime is a neighbourhood phenomenon, this study aims to examine how different residential crime levels are associated with price of property in a densely populated municipality in South Africa.Design/methodology/approachThe semi-log hedonic pricing model estimated with the least squares method was employed to test the difference between non-violent (burglary) and violent (robbery) crimes in their relationship with residential property prices. A combined total of 89,573 yearly property sales transactions and burglary and robbery at residential premises for five towns in the city of Johannesburg between 2010 and 2020 were used.FindingsBurglary is strongly associated with house price compared to robbery. It is inversely related at about 0.85% in Randburg, 0.63% in Roodeport, 0.62% in Johannesburg, 0.61% in Soweto and 0.3% in Midrand. But robbery is positively associated with house prices. Despite differences in sample size and neighbourhood characteristics, the results do not corroborate for distinguishing among the towns as townships, urban and suburban areas on account of crime levels.Practical implicationsThe findings are essential to inform policy development and planning in the housing market as well as security and criminal justice system. In so doing, the type of crime, combined crime and location of crime should be selectively dealt with.Originality/valueThis study is, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, the first to examine, on a town-by-town basis, the link between residential-related crimes and residential property prices in the most densely populated province and municipality in South Africa.

Keywords: Hedonic price; Crime rate; House price; Johannesburg; South Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:ijhmap:ijhma-03-2025-0068

DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-03-2025-0068

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