Uncertainty and cash holdings: the moderating role of political connections

Ly Thi Hai Tran, Thoa Thi Kim Tu and Bao Cong Nguyen To

International Journal of Managerial Finance, 2024, vol. 20, issue 5, 1218-1243

Abstract: Purpose - This paper aims to investigate the relationship between uncertainty and corporate cash holdings with the moderating role of political connections. Design/methodology/approach - We employ fixed effects estimation on a panel dataset of 669 Vietnamese listed firms over the 2010–2020 period, with one- and two-way standard error clustering. We conduct various robustness tests, including two-stage least squares/instrumental variable and generalized method of moments regressions, alternative cash holding measure, and additional controls for macroeconomic conditions and ownership types. Findings - The effect of uncertainty on cash holdings is weakened for firms with political connections relative to those without the connections. Although general firms depend on cash flows to adjust their cash holding behavior when uncertainty increases, our findings suggest that politically connected firms do not rely on internal cash flows to accumulate cash when confronted high uncertainty. Practical implications - Our findings on the role of political connections in moderating the relationship between cash holding and economic policy uncertainty have practical implications for policymaking. Since political connections serve as a buffer for a firm’s liquidity, firms may want to seek those connections, which can, in turn, lead to increasing informal costs and unfair business environment. Originality/value - This is the first study investigating the role of political connections to the nexus of cash, cash flow and uncertainty, providing novel evidence regarding the less dependence on internal cash flows to save cash by politically connected firms. Second, the paper enriches the literature on the motives of cash holdings by proposing a modified agency view in the context of weak investor protection. Therefore, our findings strengthen the explanation for the positive effect of uncertainty on firms’ cash holdings in emerging markets.

Keywords: Cash holding; Cash flows; Political connections; Uncertainty; Vietnam; G32; G34; F50; F54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:ijmfpp:ijmf-05-2023-0245

DOI: 10.1108/IJMF-05-2023-0245

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