 How does terrorism hollow out the sustainable economic growth in Big Ten Countries?Ahmet Keser, Ibrahim Cutcu, Sunil Tiwari, Mehmet Vahit Eren, S.S. Askar and Mohamed Abouhawwash International Journal of Emerging Markets, 2023, vol. 20, issue 3, 1148-1169 Abstract: Purpose - The main objective of this research is to investigate if there is a long-term relationship between “terrorism” and sustainable “economic growth” in Big Ten Countries. Design/methodology/approach - The data was tested via Panel ARDL Analysis. The growth rate (GR) is the dependent variable, and the “Global Terror Index (GTI)” is the independent variable as the terror indicator. The ratio of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the ratio of External Balance (EB) to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are included in the model as the control variables due to their effect on the growth rate. A Panel ARDL analysis is conducted to examine the existence of long-term co-integration between terror and the economy. The planning of the study, the formation of its theoretical and conceptual framework, and the literature research were carried out in 2 months, and the collection of data, the creation of the methodology and the analysis of the analyzes were carried out in 2 months, the interpretation of the findings and the development of policy recommendations were carried out within a period of 1 month. The entire study was completed in a total of 5 months. Findings - Results showed that “Terror” has a negative impact on “Growth Rate” in the long term while “External Balance” and “Foreign Direct Investment” positively affect the Growth Rate. The coefficients for the short term are not statistically significant. Research limitations/implications - The sample is only limited to Big Ten including China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Poland and South Africa. The period for annual data collection covers the years between 2002 and 2019 and due to the unavailability of data. Practical implications - Considering the risks and the mutual negative effect that turns into a vicious circle between terrorism and the economy, it is necessary to eliminate the problems that cause terrorism in the mentioned countries, on the one hand, and to develop policies that will improve economic performance on the other. Social implications - Trustful law enforcement bodies have to be established and supported by all technological means to prevent terror. The conditions causing terror have to be investigated carefully and the problems causing terror or internal conflict have to be solved. International cooperation against terrorism has to be strengthened and partnerships, information, experience sharing have to be supported at the maximum levels. Originality/value - It is certain that terror might have a negative influence on the performance of economies. But the limited number of studies within this vein and the small size of their sample groups mostly including single-country case studies require conducting a study by using a larger sample group of countries. Big Ten here represents at least half of the population of the world and different regions of the Globe. Keywords: Terrorism; Sustainable economic growth; Big Ten Countries; Panel ARDL analysis; A12; C55; D31; D74; E01; F43 (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:ijoemp:ijoem-03-2023-0384 DOI: 10.1108/IJOEM-03-2023-0384 Access Statistics for this article International Journal of Emerging Markets is currently edited by Prof Ilan Alon More articles in International Journal of Emerging Markets from Emerald Group Publishing Limited |
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