Forecasting Fiji's exports and imports, 2003‐2020

Paresh Narayan (), Seema Narayan () and Biman Chand Prasad

International Journal of Social Economics, 2008, vol. 35, issue 12, 1005-1016

Abstract: Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to forecast Fiji's exports and imports for the period 2003‐2020. Design/methodology/approach - To achieve the goal of this paper, the autoregressive moving average with explanatory variables (ARMAX) model was applied. To this end, the paper drew on the published export demand model and the import demand model of Narayan and Narayan for Fiji. Findings - The paper's main findings are: Fiji's imports will outperform exports over the 2003‐2020 period; and current account deficits will escalate to be around F$934.4 million on average over the 2003‐2020 period. Originality/value - Exports and imports are crucial for macroeconomic policymaking. It measures the degree of openness of a country and it signals the trade balance and current account balances. This has implications for inflation and exchange rate. By forecasting Fiji's exports and imports, the paper provides policy makers with a set of information that will be useful for devising macroeconomic policies.

Keywords: Exports; Imports; Forecasting; Fiji; Macroeconomics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:ijsepp:v:35:y:2008:i:12:p:1005-1016

DOI: 10.1108/03068290810911516

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