Ramadan’s impact on the optimism of analysts’ recommendations

Harit Satt, Sarah Nechbaoui, M. Kabir Hassan and Selma Izadi

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, 2019, vol. 12, issue 5, 727-742

Abstract: Purpose - This paper aims to document the impact of Ramadan on the optimism of analysts’ recommendations taking as a sample the countries of the MENA region during the period between 2004 and 2015. The choice of these countries can be explained by the fact that their population is predominantly of a Muslim faith (The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050, 2015). Design/methodology/approach - The authors used univariate and multivariate regression models to highlight the existence of the Ramadan effect on the optimism of analysts. They have found that pre-holiday optimism is significantly lower than post-holiday optimism. Findings - This paper also documented the effect of analysts’ experience and information uncertainty on the analysts’ optimism level that allowed us to infer that low experience enhances optimism, while environment with low information uncertainty tends to decrease the level of optimism. Originality/value - Previous research on this topic has investigated the effect of months of the year, turns of the month and days-of-the-week on the behavior of stock exchanges. Another strand of the literature also analyzed the effect of holidays on the latter. However, this is the first attempt to investigate this effect on analysts’ recommendations optimism when the holiday period is related to Islam.

Keywords: Analysts’ recommendations; Optimism bias; Ramadan's effect; G10; G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:imefmp:imefm-04-2019-0171

DOI: 10.1108/IMEFM-04-2019-0171

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