Chinese imports, industrial production and inflation in Zimbabwe

Richard Makoto and Leonidas Ngendakumana

Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, 2018, vol. 11, issue 1, 2-14

Abstract: Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of Chinese import penetration on industrial production and inflation in low income countries, specifically, the impact on textile, wood and furniture, paper and chemical in Zimbabwean industries. Design/methodology/approach - The study adopted bounds test of co-integration advocated byPesaranet al.(2001)to distinguish between short- and long-run impacts. A sector-specific regression models were specified for textile, wood and furniture, paper and chemical industries and the other one on inflation Findings - The effect of Chinese imports varies across industry. A negative impact on wood and furniture and paper industries is confirmed and rejects an anticipated negative effect on textile industries. However, import penetration had a negative effect on inflation. Practical implications - The study recommends that the country should consider the trade-off between industrial shrinkage and low prices when formulating trade policy, especially import restrictions, as trade protectionism has failed in most African countries. Temporary trade restriction measures should be implemented and this will encourage dynamic efficiency in domestic industries. Originality/value - The study identified the need for sector-specific impact of Chinese import penetration on manufacturing sector and the dynamics on inflation.

Keywords: Co-integration; ARDL; Industrial production; Inflation; Chinese imports; C22; D24; E31; F14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:jcefts:jcefts-05-2017-0011

DOI: 10.1108/JCEFTS-05-2017-0011

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