Anticipating prosperity: a systemic analysis of long-term economic trajectories

Quoc Dung Ngo, Thi Van Hoa Tran and Vu Hiep Hoang

Journal of Economics and Development, 2024, vol. 27, issue 1, 4-21

Abstract: Purpose - This study introduces an innovative approach to long-term economic forecasting by integrating anticipatory governance (AG) and causal layered analysis methodologies. Focussing on emerging economies, with Vietnam as a case study, we explore potential economic trajectories to 2050. Design/methodology/approach - The research employs a mixed-method approach, combining quantitative economic projections with qualitative scenario building and analysis. Findings - Our findings reveal four distinct future scenarios, ranging from low growth to transformative change. The preferred scenario, characterized by adaptive change, projects a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of $30,684 by 2050, with significant reductions in agricultural labour and improvements in human development indicators. Originality/value - This study contributes to theoretical and practical domains by demonstrating the value of integrated foresight methodologies in economic planning. It offers policymakers a comprehensive framework for navigating complex, long-term economic challenges and opportunities. This research underscores the importance of adaptive governance and systemic thinking in achieving sustainable, inclusive economic growth in an increasingly uncertain global environment.

Keywords: Anticipatory governance; Causal layered analysis; Economic forecasting; Emerging economies; Sustainable development; Scenario planning; O21; O47; Q01; E17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:jedpps:jed-08-2024-0299

DOI: 10.1108/JED-08-2024-0299

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