The impact of declining birth rates on future infrastructure maintenance costs per capita

John D. McCollough, Gevorg Sargsyan and Zhe Luo

Journal of Economic Studies, 2022, vol. 50, issue 6, 1121-1129

Abstract: Purpose - This paper focuses on one vital consequence which is that future infrastructure maintenance cost per capita will increase. Using a sample of 23 developed countries, this paper looks at rail line maintenance cost per capita in the year 2020 versus rail line maintenance cost per capita in the year 2100. This analysis can be applied to most other infrastructure maintenance costs in the future. Design/methodology/approach - However, this paper focuses on one vital consequence which is that future infrastructure maintenance cost per capita will increase. Using a sample of 23 developed countries, this paper looks at rail line maintenance cost per capita in the year 2020 versus rail line maintenance cost per capita in the year 2100. This analysis can be applied to most other infrastructure maintenance costs in the future. Findings - The findings show that trail line maintenance costs per capita in the year 2100 will increase significantly for most developed countries. Research limitations/implications - This research shows the negative consequences of declining birth rates in a very vital and important area. Practical implications - Despite declining birth rates and population decline in the future, many infrastructure systems still need to be maintained. Social implications - Maintaining the infrastructure will extract increasing amounts of vital national resources away from other societal concerns. Originality/value - From an extensive literature review, very little, if any, has been written on this subject. Yet, this topic is highly important and will continue to get more focus in the future.

Keywords: Birth rates; Infrastructure maintenance costs; Declining population; Fertility; Labor shortages; Economic impact; Network-type infrastructure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:jespps:jes-05-2022-0299

DOI: 10.1108/JES-05-2022-0299

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