GDP and population growth: Evidence of fractional cointegration with historical data from 1820 onwards

Luis Gil-Alana, Cecilia Font and Águeda Gil-López

Journal of Economic Studies, 2021, vol. 49, issue 2, 379-393

Abstract: Purpose - Using data from 1820 onwards in a group of seven countries, namely, Australia, Chile, Denmark, France, the UK, Italy and the USA, the authors investigate if there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the two variables (GDP and population). Design/methodology/approach - Using fractional integration and cointegration methods, this paper deals with the analysis of the relationship between GDP and population using historical data. Findings - The authors’ results show first that the two series are highly persistent, presenting orders of integration close to or above 1 in practically all cases. Testing cointegration between the two variables, the results are quite variable depending on the methodology and the bandwidth numbers used, but if cointegration takes places, it only occurs in the cases of France, Italy and the UK. Research limitations/implications - The fact that the orders of integration of all series is close to 1 indicate high levels of persistence with shocks having permanent effects and requiring strong measures to recover the original trends. Practical implications - Any shock affecting the series will have a permanent nature, persisting forever. Originality/value - Updated time series techniques based on concepts such as fractional integration and cointegration are used.

Keywords: GDP; GPD per capita; Population; Cointegration; Persistence; C22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.110 ... d&utm_campaign=repec (text/html)
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.110 ... d&utm_campaign=repec (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:jespps:jes-06-2020-0307

DOI: 10.1108/JES-06-2020-0307

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Economic Studies is currently edited by Prof Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee

More articles in Journal of Economic Studies from Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Emerald Support ().