A broad analysis of short-term overreactions in the market for cryptocurrencies

Tobias Kellner and Dominik Maltritz

Journal of Economic Studies, 2021, vol. 49, issue 8, 1585-1608

Abstract: Purpose - The purpose of this study is to analyze market inefficiencies in the market for cryptocurrencies by providing a comprehensive analysis of short-term (over)reactions that follow significant price changes of such currencies. Design/methodology/approach - This study identifies and analyzes overreactions and mispricing in markets for cryptocurrencies by applying a broad set of thresholds that depend on market-specific dynamics and volatilities. This study also analyzes the returns on days following abnormal returns and identifies significant differences from normal returns using thet-test and the Mann–WhitneyU-test. The researchers further complement the literature by using end-of-the-day returns in addition to high-low returns. Additionally, this study considers a broad sample of 50 cryptocurrencies for an expanded time span (2015–2020) that includes the big currencies as well as smaller currencies. Findings - Findings detect the existence of overreactions and, thus, market inefficiencies in crypto markets. The findings for different methodological approaches are similar, which underpins the robustness of the findings. By considering a broad sample that includes small and big currencies, we can show the existence of a market size effect. By considering a broad set of thresholds, the authors further found evidence for a magnitude effect, which means that higher initial abnormal returns are related to higher inefficiencies. Practical implications - This paper has practical implications. Market inefficiencies were detected, which can be used in practical trading to obtain excess returns. In fact, methodological approach of this study and its results can be used to derive a strategy for trading in cryptocurrencies that can be easily implemented. Based on the study’s findings, the authors can expect positive access returns by applying this trading strategy. Originality/value - The authors complement the literature on market inefficiencies and mispricing in crypto markets by analyzing price patterns after initial abnormal returns. Researchers contribute by applying different methodological approaches in addition to the approaches used so far, by considering a set of different thresholds and by applying a much broader data set that enables the study to analyze additional aspects.

Keywords: Cryptocurrencies; Overreaction; Market efficiency; Bitcoin; Abnormal returns; Magnitude effect; G12; G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:jespps:jes-09-2021-0488

DOI: 10.1108/JES-09-2021-0488

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