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Inflation volatility, monetary policy signaling and clarity of the central bank communication: Evidence from an inflation targeting emerging economy

Rodolfo Nicolay () and Ana Jordânia de Oliveira

Journal of Economic Studies, 2019, vol. 46, issue 2, 266-283

Abstract: Purpose - Studies about the determinants of the clarity of central bank communication are still scarce. To the authors’ knowledge, there are no studies regarding emerging economies. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature in the following aspects: to analyze the determinants of the clarity of the central bank communication in an inflation targeting emerging economy; observe the influence of inflation volatility over the clarity; and observe the effect of the monetary policy signaling over the clarity. Design/methodology/approach - The work uses readability indexes to measure the clarity of central bank communication. The empirical analysis uses ordinary least squares and the Generalized Method of Moments with one- and two-step estimations. Findings - The findings suggest the inflation volatility reduces the clarity of central bank communication. Moreover, the monetary policy signaling also affects the clarity, but the effect depends on the direction of the signal. Practical implications - This paper observes the determinants of the clarity considering an emerging economy environment. The clarity of central bank communications is an important tool to access transparency. Hence, the analysis of what determines the clarity of central bank communication is a debate about the level of transparency accessed by the central bank. Originality/value - There are no studies about the determinants of the clarity of central bank communication in emerging economies. Moreover, the novelty are the effects of inflation volatility and monetary policy signaling over the clarity.

Keywords: Monetary policy; Inflation; Clarity; Central bank communication; E44; E58; E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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