Differential impact of money growth on inflationary outcomes: evidence from emerging markets using panel NARDL approach

Aakanksha Shrawan and Amlendu Dubey

Journal of Economic Studies, 2024, vol. 52, issue 3, 549-565

Abstract: Purpose - The study seeks evidence on the asymmetric effects of broad money growth on inflation in the short run and long run, in the context of emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). Design/methodology/approach - Using a panel dataset of 122 EMDEs (by distinguishing between inflation-targeting and non-inflation-targeting EMDEs), we employ the nonlinear counterpart of the autoregressive distributed lag framework, which provides evidence of asymmetric dynamics between money growth and inflation in EMDEs. Findings - In consonance with the quantity theory of money, we find a long-run relationship between money growth and inflationary outcomes. We also find that the response of inflation is higher to a tightening episode in the monetary policy stance than to a loosening episode. The study also provides evidence that adopting the inflation targeting framework in EMDEs has led to a significant reduction in the inflation rates along with ensuring a higher magnitude of transmission from money supply growth to inflationary outcomes. Originality/value - To the best of our knowledge, the present study is one of the first attempts to evaluate the differential impact of broad money growth on inflationary outcomes, using a panel dataset of EMDEs. As a result of inherent differences in the financial structures of EMDEs vis-à-vis advanced nations, there is an imperative need to assess the dynamics of pass-through from money supply to inflation to gain an understanding of the mechanism of monetary transmission in these economies.

Keywords: Monetary policy; Inflation; Output gap; Inflation targeting; EMDEs; Nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model; Pooled mean group estimation; E31; E41; E52; F0; F41; F62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:jespps:jes-12-2023-0716

DOI: 10.1108/JES-12-2023-0716

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