The impact of inflation on local government fiscal health

Christine R. Martell

Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, 2024, vol. 36, issue 2, 234-252

Abstract: Purpose - Inflation and federal monetary efforts to control it with interest rate hikes have very real and overwhelmingly negative consequences on US local governments following the onset of COVID-19. This study explores the post-pandemic inflationary environment of US local governments; examines the impacts of inflation and high interest rates on local government revenue, operating costs, capital costs, and debt service; reviews local government inflation management strategies, including the use of intergovernmental revenue; and assesses ongoing threats to local government financial health and financial resilience. Design/methodology/approach - This study uses trend and literature analysis to comment on current issues local governments face. Findings - The study finds that the growth of property values and resulting stability of property tax revenue has been important to local government revenues; that local governments bear very real burdens as operating and capital costs increase; and that the combination of high inflation and interest rates affects local government debt issuance by negatively affecting credit quality and interest costs, leading to municipal market contraction. Local governments have benefitted tremendously from intergovernmental revenue, but would be ill-advised to rely on it. Practical implications - Vulnerabilities owing from revenue mismatch with the economy; inadequate affordable housing, inequality, and social issues; a changing workforce and tight labor market; climate change; and federal fiscal contraction—all of which are exacerbated by high inflation and interest rates—require local governments to act strategically, boldly and collaboratively to achieve fiscal health and financial resilience, and to realize positive returns of investments in people and capital. Originality/value - This work is unique in addressing the post-pandemic impact of inflation and interest rates on local governments.

Keywords: Local government; Inflation; Financial resilience; Post-pandemic; Intergovernmental revenue; Fiscal health; Costs; Debt (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:jpbafm:jpbafm-09-2023-0171

DOI: 10.1108/JPBAFM-09-2023-0171

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