Cycology – what has been learnt from previous real estate cycles?

Simon Durkin

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 2017, vol. 35, issue 4, 427-435

Abstract: Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to look at the lessons learnt from the previous real estate cycles based on a sample of investors, occupiers and academics and seek to understand the practical challenges the industry faces in the current cycle. Design/methodology/approach - The paper summarises the results of qualitative research and interviews conducted and analysed by BNP Paribas Real Estate and Ipsos MORI. Findings - The paper considers the crisis of 2008, its impact on performance, lessons learnt by the industry as a result and the future challenges. Whilst the industry felt well prepared to withstand future uncertainty and change, there was concern that subsequent generations of industry professionals will not be well equipped to deal with the pace and magnitude of change. Practical implications - This is a practical study that seeks to place a greater emphasis on the drivers of market sentiment rather than focussing on quantitative forecasts. Originality/value - There is much attention given to quantitative property market forecasts; however, there seems to be little appreciation of the need to evolve our process in today’s fast paced, structurally changing market which will behave differently to how it has in the past. Economic forecasts have received much criticism recently and these provide the basis for property market forecasts. The consideration of sentiment and the qualitative aspect of the future drivers of performance have never been so critical.

Keywords: Future; Sentiment; Cycles; BNP Paribas Real Estate; MSCI; Real estate forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.110 ... d&utm_campaign=repec (text/html)
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.110 ... d&utm_campaign=repec (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:jpifpp:jpif-04-2017-0028

DOI: 10.1108/JPIF-04-2017-0028

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Property Investment & Finance is currently edited by Nick French

More articles in Journal of Property Investment & Finance from Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Emerald Support ().