Practice Briefing: Feasibility practices in the Brazilian real estate market – gaps, constraints and paths towards probabilistic analysis

Dennis Alonso Sanchez Clavijo

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 2026, vol. 44, issue 1, 58-64

Abstract: PurposeThe purpose of this article is to examine the Brazilian context of real estate feasibility practice, highlight the gap between deterministic and probabilistic approaches – common across emerging markets – and demonstrate how probabilistic modelling can be made accessible even under data-scarce conditions.Design/methodology/approachThe article is structured in two interlinked parts. The first reviews previous research, current developer practices, educational content and institutional guidelines to assess the Brazilian context. The second presents a case study that applies Monte Carlo simulation in a spreadsheet environment using expert-judgment elicitation to define input probability distributions.FindingsAlthough local practitioners acknowledge uncertainty qualitatively, feasibility studies in Brazil remain dominated by fixed-point cash-flow simulations. This gap is driven by limited data availability, low technical awareness, restricted access to analytical software and institutional inertia. The adapted model further illustrates that even modest probabilistic integration can enhance transparency and support more informed investment decision-making.Practical implicationsThe framework offers developers and analysts an accessible pathway to incrementally incorporate risk analysis into feasibility studies, helping to align local practice with international standards such as those of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS).Originality/valueThis Practice Briefing revisits and extends previous work on Brazilian feasibility practice, offering one of the first contextualised discussions of how probabilistic reasoning can be operationalised in emerging markets, bridging the gap between academic modelling and professional application.

Keywords: Risk analysis; Real estate development; Economic-financial viability; Monte Carlo method; Brazil; Emerging markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:jpifpp:jpif-12-2025-0194

DOI: 10.1108/JPIF-12-2025-0194

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