Serial persistence in individual real estate returns in the UK

Steven P. Devaney, Stephen L. Lee and Michael Young

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 2007, vol. 25, issue 3, 241-273

Abstract: Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine individual level property returns to see whether there is evidence of persistence in performance, i.e. a greater than expected probability of well (badly) performing properties continuing to perform well (badly) in subsequent periods. Design/methodology/approach - The same methodology originally used in Young and Graff is applied, making the results directly comparable with those for the US and Australian markets. However, it uses a much larger database covering all UK commercial property data available in the Investment Property Databank (IPD) for the years 1981 to 2002 – as many as 216,758 individual property returns. Findings - While the results of this study mimic the US and Australian results of greater persistence in the extreme first and fourth quartiles, they also evidence persistence in the moderate second and third quartiles, a notable departure from previous studies. Likewise patterns across property type, location, time, and holding period are remarkably similar. Research limitations/implications - The findings suggest that performance persistence is not a feature unique to particular markets, but instead may characterize most advanced real estate investment markets. Originality/value - As well as extending previous research geographically, the paper explores possible reasons for such persistence, consideration of which leads to the conjecture that behaviors in the practice of institutional‐grade commercial real estate investment management may themselves be deeply rooted and persistent, and perhaps influenced for good or ill by agency effects.

Keywords: Property; Real estate; Return on investment; Performance levels; Asset valuation; United Kingdom (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Serial Persistence in Individual Real Estate Returns in the UK (2004)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:jpifpp:v:25:y:2007:i:3:p:241-273

DOI: 10.1108/14635780710746911

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