Global trade and finance turmoil: the Ukraine–Russia war’s impact

Masihullah Nemat, Birjees Rahat, Matteo Rossi and Charbel Salloum

Journal of Risk Finance, 2025, vol. 26, issue 3, 516-529

Abstract: Purpose - This study examines the economic and financial impacts of the Ukraine–Russia conflict on global trade, focusing on supply chain disruptions, financial market volatility and shifts in trade policies. The research evaluates how geopolitical instability reshapes trade networks, financial stability and risk management strategies. Design/methodology/approach - A qualitative approach is employed, analyzing secondary data from international trade and financial institutions. Thematic coding identifies key trends in trade disruptions, financial volatility, policy adaptations and resilience strategies. The study integrates the Gravity Model of Trade to contextualize systemic shifts in trade patterns and financial stability. Findings - The conflict has significantly disrupted global trade, particularly in energy and agricultural sectors, leading to increased commodity prices and logistical challenges. Financial markets experienced heightened volatility, with sharp currency fluctuations and increased risk premiums. Governments responded with policy adaptations such as regionalization and trade diversification, while businesses implemented resilience strategies, including supply chain diversification and technological innovation. Research limitations/implications - The study relies on secondary data, which may limit broader applicability. Future research should incorporate quantitative modeling to measure long-term trade and financial impacts. Practical implications - Findings inform policymakers on mitigating geopolitical trade risks and guide businesses in adopting proactive resilience strategies. Social implications - Strengthening global supply chains and financial stability mechanisms can enhance economic security and reduce socio-economic consequences of geopolitical conflicts. Originality/value - This study extends the Gravity Model of Trade by incorporating geopolitical disruptions and financial market responses. It provides empirical insights into the interplay between trade policies, financial stability and business adaptation strategies, offering a comprehensive framework for understanding global economic resilience in times of conflict.

Keywords: Global trade disruptions; Financial market volatility; Economic policy adaptations; Risk management strategies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:jrfpps:jrf-02-2025-0091

DOI: 10.1108/JRF-02-2025-0091

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