Risk assessment for ammonia in Chinese maritime operations

Ashraf Dawar

Maritime Business Review, 2026, vol. 11, issue 4, 359-377

Abstract: PurposeThis paper examines the safety issues related to the use of ammonia as a marine fuel in China, its flammability, toxicity and its potential management strategies.Design/methodology/approachThe study divides risks into three main categories using the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) methodology: regulatory enforcement gaps, human operational errors and technical system failures. The risk priority number (RPN) supports quantitative risk assessment, and incident case reviews and simulation trials yield qualitative insights.FindingsThere are serious risks from both human error (45% of incidents) and technical malfunctions during ammonia transfers (RPN 378). The study suggests a risk management framework that includes ammonia bunkering regulations unique to China, VR-based training that improves performance by 41% and triple-redundant safety systems.Research limitations/implicationsThe analysis depends on secondary reports and simulation-based training results and is constrained by the availability of real-time operational data from Chinese ports. For wider generalizability, additional empirical research and expert validations (such as the Delphi technique) are advised.Originality/valueThis paper uses a contextualized FMEA framework of the application of ammonia in Chinese ports, to combine technical, human-factor and regulatory risks quantitatively and translate them into a China-driven risk management framework of ammonia bunkering.

Keywords: Maritime shipping; Operations management; Ammonia; Risk assessment; Safety management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:mabrpp:mabr-07-2025-0069

DOI: 10.1108/MABR-07-2025-0069

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