Investor sentiment, realized volatility and stock returns

Wafa Abdelmalek

Review of Behavioral Finance, 2021, vol. 14, issue 5, 668-700

Abstract: Purpose - This paper examines the relationship between volatility, sentiment and returns in terms of levels and changes for both lower and higher data frequencies using quantile regression (QR) method. Design/methodology/approach - In the first step, the study applies the Granger causality test to understand the causal relationship between realized volatility, returns and sentiment as levels and changes. In the second step, the study employs a QR method to investigate whether investor sentiment and returns can predict realized volatility. This regression method gives robust results irrespective of distributional assumptions and to outliers in the dependent variable. Findings - Empirical results show that the VIX volatility index is a better fear gauge of market-wide investors' sentiments and has a predictive power for future realized volatility in terms of levels and changes for both higher and lower data frequencies. This study provides evidence that the relationship between realized volatility, investor sentiment and returns, respectively, is not symmetric for all quantiles of QR, as opposed to OLS regression. Furthermore, this work supports the behavioral theory beyond leverage hypothesis in explaining the asymmetric relation between returns and volatility at higher and lower data frequencies. Originality/value - This paper adds to the limited understanding of investor sentiment’s impact on volatility by proposing a QR model which provides a more complete picture of the relationship at all parts of the volatility distribution for both higher and lower data frequencies and in terms of levels and changes. To the author knowledge, this is the first paper to study the volatility responses to positive and negative sentiment changes for developed market and to use both lower and higher data frequencies as well as data in terms of levels and changes.

Keywords: Investor sentiment; Stock index returns; Realized volatility; Asymmetric relationship; Quantile regression model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.110 ... d&utm_campaign=repec (text/html)
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.110 ... d&utm_campaign=repec (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:rbfpps:rbf-12-2020-0301

DOI: 10.1108/RBF-12-2020-0301

Access Statistics for this article

Review of Behavioral Finance is currently edited by Professor Gulnur Muradoglu

More articles in Review of Behavioral Finance from Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Emerald Support ().