Electricity demand anomaly detection and forecasting: a hybrid framework for improved grid management

Rishan Adha, Fety Widianti Aptasari, Ni Wayan Adelia Mutiara Asri and Budiman Budiman

Technological Sustainability, 2026, 1-24

Abstract: PurposeThis study aims to develop a robust and interpretable forecasting framework for short-term electricity demand that supports sustainable energy demand management, particularly under conditions of demand volatility and unexpected events.Design/methodology/approachThis study proposes a hybrid Prophet-XGBoost forecasting framework that combines a decomposable time-series model with machine learning–based residual learning. The model was validated using 425 days of operational data from the Taiwan Power Company, utilizing a 30-day out-of-sample test set to simulate real-world forecasting.FindingsThe hybrid model consistently improves upon the standalone Prophet baseline and remains highly competitive with standalone XGBoost. Anomaly detection identifies demand irregularities linked to exogenous shocks, such as national holidays, improving robustness and interpretability.Practical implicationsThe framework offers energy utilities and system operators a practical decision-support tool for improving short-term load forecasting, anticipating demand shocks, and strengthening grid reliability.Originality/valueThis study contributes a decision-oriented hybrid forecasting framework that combines statistical interpretability with machine learning accuracy and explicit anomaly detection for energy sector management.

Keywords: Electricity demand forecasting; Hybrid model; Machine learning; Energy policy and management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:techsp:techs-04-2026-0082

DOI: 10.1108/TECHS-04-2026-0082

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