Construction and Analysis of a Global GDP Growth Model for 185 Countries through 2050

Harpaul Kohli, Y. Aaron Szyf and Drew Arnold

Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 2012, vol. 4, issue 2, 91-153

Abstract: This article presents the construction and analysis of a long-run GDP growth model, including sample results, its sensitivity to parameter choices, and explanations of the concepts underpinning it. It is designed to be flexible so that scholars can use it with their own assumptions and parameter choices to customize results. The model estimates GDP as a function of labor force, capital stock, and total factor productivity (TFP) for 185 countries through 2050 under alternate scenarios. It provides rough estimates for real exchange rates, poverty indices, median incomes and percentiles, and the populations of the lower, middle, and upper income classes. The model also provides additional evidence for the TFP convergence phenomenon and the effect of the state failure on TFP growth. It can further be used to model the stocks, accessibility, and investment requirements for 10 infrastructure sectors. The model can yield counterfactual estimates and actual and roughly estimated comparable historical data for most of the projected series, provided in identical units. For 126 countries, such series (e.g., TFP) are provided back through 1956, and for some even earlier.

Keywords: Projections; convergence; TFP; middle income trap; failed states; GDP growth; scenarios; model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-05
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