Thirlwall´s law with an emphasis on the ratio of export/import income elasticities in Latin American economies during the Twentieth Century

Carlos Guerrero de Lizardi
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Carlos Guerrero de Lizardi: Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Carlos Guerrero-de-Lizardi

Estudios Económicos, 2006, vol. 21, issue 1, 23-44

Abstract: Using stochastic specifications that emphasize the role of the ratio of export/import income elasticities, this paper applies the balance-of-payments constraint model to nineteen Latin American countries from 1900 to 2000. The paper begins with a brief presentation of Thirlwall's well-known model. Immediately following this, we verify the existence of a long run relationship between developing economies on one hand, and the US economy on the other. To explore the short term evolution of the quantitative link between economies, a time varying model is estimated by means of an algorithm known as a Kalman filter. Mainly, the results show a diminishing the ratio of export/import income elasticities over the years, which represents an unexpected and serious feature of the new economic strategy that has already been implanted in the region.

Date: 2006
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