Pronósticos restringidos con modelos de series de tiempo múltiples y su aplicación para evaluar metas de política macroeconómica en México

Victor M. Guerrero
Additional contact information
Victor M. Guerrero: Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México

Estudios Económicos, 2007, vol. 22, issue 2, 241-311

Abstract: This work applies the restricted forecasting methodology to monitor the attainment of targets announced by the Mexican Government for some relevant macroeconomic variables. This method yields scenarios that are in line with the expectations underlying the proposed targets. Some multiple time series models of the VAR, VEC and BVAR type are first built and their predictive abilities are analyzed. The method is then applied with the best forecasting model, which was found to be a BVAR model. With the scenarios so derived it is possible to decide whether the targets are feasible or not and the moment when statistically significant evidence has arisen to declare the targets unfeasible.

Keywords: statistical monitoring; compatibility between restrictions and historical record (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C53 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://estudioseconomicos.colmex.mx/index.php/economicos/article/view/143/145

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:emx:esteco:v:22:y:2007:i:2:p:241-311

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Estudios Económicos from El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Ximena Varela ().