Producto potencial y ciclos económicos en México, 1980.1-2006.4

Eduardo Loría, Manuel G. Ramos and Leobardo de Jesús
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Eduardo Loría: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Manuel G. Ramos: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Leobardo de Jesús: Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México

Estudios Económicos, 2008, vol. 23, issue 1, 25-47

Abstract: Through the use of Structural Times Series Models we estimated: potential output, the output gap and the business cycles for the Mexican GDP (1980.1-2006.4). We found that: a) the potential output has varied sharply for two different time periods: 2.1% (1980.4-1994.4) and 3.7% (1995.4-2006.4); b) great component of seasonality: Q1 and Q3 are of slow growth (below average) and Q2, Q4 above average; c) we detected that the peaks and troughs have been progressively less pronounced since the year 2000.

Keywords: Potential output; output gap; business cycles; structural time series models; Kalman filter. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E32 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:emx:esteco:v:23:y:2008:i:1:p:25-47

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