Ciclos, crecimiento económico y crisis en México, 1980.1-2013.4

Eduardo Loría and Emmanuel Salas
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Eduardo Loría: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Emmanuel Salas: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

Estudios Económicos, 2014, vol. 29, issue 2, 131-161

Abstract: By using the X-12-ARIMA procedure and the HP filter (lambda = 1 096) with end-of-sample correction (St. Amant and van Norden, 1997; Sarabia, 2010), we identified the growth cycles and estimated the potential output for the Mexican economy (1980.1- 2013.4). We found that: a) there have been six cycles, b) their duration is of about 15-22 quarters, c) their amplitude regarding the potential output varies between 4.46% and -6.48%, d) the expansionary phases never have been above the former data, thus it can be considered as an alarm signal of the end of a cycle, and e) by 2013.4 the Mexican economy was 2.5% below.

Keywords: business cycles; potential output; end-of-sample correction; growth rolling window (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E32 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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