An empirical analysis of real commodity price trends: Aggregation, model selection and implications

John Cuddington

Estudios Económicos, 1992, vol. 7, issue 2, 159-179

Abstract: This paper re-examines the empirical validity of the Prebish-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the relative price of primary commodities in terms of manufacturing goods. The empirical findings based on arithmetic and geometric commodity price indices are compared. When Grilli-Yang's arithmetic mean index is employed, the findings regarding commodity price trends are inconclusive. A new geometric mean index, in contrast, yields results that are robust.

Date: 1992
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:emx:esteco:v:7:y:1992:i:2:p:159-179

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