The effect of crude oil price changes on civil conflict intensity in rentier states

Chase Englund (), Taylor Vincent () and Connor Kopchick ()
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Chase Englund: University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, U.S.
Taylor Vincent: University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, U.S.
Connor Kopchick: University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, U.S.

Economics of Peace and Security Journal, 2023, vol. 18, issue 2, 29-50

Abstract: While existing literature has considered the relationship between oil and conflict, most of the studies have failed to consider mechanisms that might mediate the effect of the fluctuating market price of oil on conflict. We theorize that the military capacity of the state is a key mediating mechanism for understanding the relationship between shifting oil market prices and conflict intensity. We argue that states which rely upon oil sales to fund a large portion of government spending will have a more difficult time maintaining conflict-reducing state capacity during times in which oil prices are below previously prevailing averages for extended lengths of time. Using country-year data in 67 conflict states from 1989–2019, we find that low average oil prices are associated with lower military spending which in turn is associated with higher rates of battle fatalities in existing civil conflicts.

Keywords: Post-Keynesian; Neo-Kaleckian growth; Joan Robinson; military expenditure; income distribution; growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E11 H56 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:epc:journl:v:18:y:2023:i:2:p:29-50

DOI: 10.15355/epsj.18.2.29

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