Comparative Analysis of GARCH-Based Volatility Models of Financial Market Volatility: A Case of Nairobi Security Market PLC, Kenya

Teddy Mutugi Wanjuki, Victor Wandera Lumumba, Emmanuel Koech Kimtai, Morris Kateeti Mbaluka and Elizabeth Wambui Njoroge
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Teddy Mutugi Wanjuki: Chuka University, Kenya
Victor Wandera Lumumba: Chuka University, Kenya
Emmanuel Koech Kimtai: Chuka University, Kenya
Morris Kateeti Mbaluka: Kenya Institute of Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA), Kenya
Elizabeth Wambui Njoroge: Chuka University, Kenya

European Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, 2024, vol. 5, issue 4, 1-18

Abstract: This paper conducted a comprehensive comparative analysis of various GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) models to forecast financial market volatility, with a specific focus on the Nairobi Stock Exchange Market. The examined models include symmetric and asymmetric GARCH types, such as sGARCH, GJR-GARCH, AR (1) GJG-GARCH, among others. The primary objective is to identify the most suitable model for capturing the complex dynamics of financial market volatility. The study employs rigorous evaluation criteria, including the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Mean Error (ME), and Root Mean Absolute Error (RMAE), to assess the performance of each model. These criteria facilitate the selection of the optimal model for volatility forecasting. The analysis reveals that the GJR-GARCH (1,1) model emerges as the best-fit model, with AIC and BIC values of −5.5008 and −5.4902, respectively. This selection aligns with the consensus in the literature, highlighting the superiority of asymmetric GARCH models in capturing volatility dynamics. The comparison also involves symmetric GARCH models, such as sGARCH (1,1), and other asymmetric models like AR (1) GJG-GARCH. While these models were considered, the GJR-GARCH (1,1) model demonstrated superior forecasting capabilities. The study emphasizes the importance of accurate model selection and the incorporation of asymmetry in volatility modeling. The research provides essential insights into financial market volatility modeling and forecasting using both asymmetric and symmetric GARCH models. These findings have significant implications for government policymakers, financial institutions, and investors, offering improved tools for risk assessment and decision-making during periods of market turbulence.

Keywords: Financial market volatility; GARCH models; model selection; Nairobi Stock Exchange Market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:epw:ejmath:v:5:y:2024:i:4:id:14310

DOI: 10.24018/ejmath.2024.5.4.310

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