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Combined Modeling of Projected Evaluation of the Regional Socio-economic Development

V.V. Davnis, V.I. Tinyakova, A.O. Blinov and Yu.V. Volodin

International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), 2019, vol. VII, issue Special 1, 348-354

Abstract: Purpose: The article reveals the authors’ approach to forecast the socio-economic development of a region. Design/Methodology/Approach: The framework of this approach envisages the construction of three interrelated models: a matrix predictor, an autoregressive model, and a binary choice logit model. This approach ensures an adequate reproduction of the systemic dynamics of indicators of regional socio-economic development. Findings: Authors’ models require their implementation in the state management function of the regional economy and testing with specific examples illustrating opportunities of multidimensional economic and mathematical modeling of difficult socio-economic phenomena and processes. Practical implications: Authors’ development represents a conceptual foundation for the development of digital regional socio-economic monitoring systems providing an opportunity for a qualitative increase in the reliability and relevance of prognostic parameters. Originality/Value: The contribution of the article is assessment of an opportunity to model the dynamics of multidimensional processes with the perspective to build a combined forecast model of the socio-economic development of the region, providing for the implementation of multivariate forecast calculations.

Keywords: Forecast; region; socio-economic development; combined modeling; discrete-continuous regression matrix model. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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