The Cyclicality of Irish Fiscal Policy Ex-Ante and Ex-Post

David Cronin and Kieran McQuinn
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David Cronin: Central Bank of Ireland

The Economic and Social Review, 2018, vol. 49, issue 1, 1-16

Abstract: The cyclicality of fiscal policy in Ireland in the budgetary plans put before parliament and ex-post is considered. Data in budgetary documents and particular econometric estimation procedures help address endogeneity issues and provide numerous variable-estimation procedure combinations for assessing cyclicality. Fiscal policy in Ireland is found to be pro-cyclical on both ex-ante and ex-post bases. The evidence is mixed between policy being more pro-cyclical ex-post than was intended at Budget time and there being no difference. With the preventive arm of the Stability and Growth Pact now applying to Ireland, a continuation of pro-cyclical fiscal policy would endanger its requirements being met.

Keywords: fiscal policy; budget; Ireland (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Related works:
Working Paper: The cyclicality of Irish fiscal policy ex-ante and ex-post (2017)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eso:journl:v:49:y:2018:i:1:p:1-16

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