Inside the "Upside Down": Estimating Ireland's Output Gap
Eddie Casey ()
The Economic and Social Review, 2019, vol. 50, issue 1, 5-34
This paper attempts to identify estimates of Irelandâ€™s output gap that are relevant for fiscal policy. In contrast to standard approaches, we focus on measures of domestic economic activity, given its relatively more tax-rich nature. We examine and test various methods based on univariate/multivariate filters and principal components analysis, comparing our estimates with those of the EU Commonly Agreed Methodology. We find that our results are stable; are less complex in structure; are able to explain price and wage inflation; and, most importantly, yield estimates that are more plausible for Ireland.
Keywords: output gap; fiscal policy; Ireland (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eso:journl:v:50:y:2019:i:1:p:5-34
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