Mixed Sampling Panel Data Model for Regional Job Vacancies Forecasting

Dorin Jula and Nicolae Jula

Eco-Economics Review, 2017, vol. 3, issue 1, 3-20

Abstract: We tested, for Romania, the relationship at regional level between the job vacancies rate (with quarterly frequency) as explained variable and, as explanatory variables (regressors) unemployment rate (available with monthly frequency), respectively gross domestic product growth rate (who is presented at annual frequency). To identify the regional (cross-sections) specific effects, we use a panel data model. Since the analysed variables have different frequencies, the panel data model was built based on the MIDAS methodology. To avoid the cross-section correlation between errors, we used the SUR methodology to estimate the model's parameters. We found that, for all eight Romanian regions, the job vacancies are negative associated with unemployment (this result is consistent with the theory of Beveridge curve), and positive correlated with economic growth (and this result is in line with Okun's theory). The data also show a significant inertial effect in regional dynamics of vacancies.

Keywords: job vacancy; unemployment rate; gross domestic product; panel data model; MIDAS; forecasting methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 C53 J63 J64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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