Estrutura produtiva, restrição externa e crescimento econômico: a experiência brasileira

Gilberto Lima and Veridiana Ramos da Silva Carvalho

Revista Economia e Sociedade, 2009, vol. 36, 30

Abstract: Productive structure, external constraint and economic growth: the Brazilian experience - We analyze the sharp drop in the growth rate that has been experienced by the Brazilian economy since the 1980s, using the balance-of-payments-constrained growth approach. Empirical results show that growth in the 1930-2004 period was balance-of-payments-constrained, with terms of trade and capital flows playing quite a minor role in the reaching of external equilibrium. The sharp drop in growth that has experienced since the 1980s, however, can be explained by a tighter external constraint, given the behavior of the terms of trade and capital flows. In the 1990s, on the other hand, a new development strategy made for a structural break in the income elasticity of imports, thus leading to a lower growth rate compatible with balance-of-payments equilibrium.

Keywords: Productive structure; External constraint; Economic growth. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E10 E23 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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