An Intervention Analysis of the Behavior of the Iranian Real Gross Domestic Product: 1959-2001

Ebrahim Hosseini Nasab ()
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Ebrahim Hosseini Nasab: Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities,Tarbiat Modares University,Tehran, Iran

Iranian Economic Review (IER), 2007, vol. 12, issue 2, 1-19

Abstract: The Iranian real gross domestic product in the period of 1959-2001 reveals a relatively high degree of instability. Some of this instability almost certainly arises because of external shocks to the economy. This paper focuses on three shocks, or interventions, which seem to have had particularly significant impacts on the Iranian economy. These are the political upheavals of mid 1971’s, the 1981-1989 War, and the oil shock and some policy reversals of early 1991’s. We construct a time series model for the purpose of intervention analysis and use this model to calculate the impact on the Iranian economy of each and every of these interventions.

Keywords: Iranian Economy; Time Series Analysis; Intervention Analysis; Dummy Variable Analysis; Iraq-Iran War; Political Upheavals; Oils Shocks. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eut:journl:v:12:y:2007:i:2:p:1

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