A Comparison Between Time Series, Exponential Smoothing, and Neural Network Methods To Forecast GDPof Iran

Ahmad Jafari-Samimi (), Babak Shirazi and Hamed Fazlollahtabar
Additional contact information
Ahmad Jafari-Samimi: Professor of Economics at The University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
Babak Shirazi: Ph.D students at The Sciences and Technologies University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
Hamed Fazlollahtabar: Ph.D students at The Sciences and Technologies University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Ahmad Jafari Samimi

Iranian Economic Review (IER), 2007, vol. 12, issue 2, 19-35

Abstract: In general gross domestic product (GDP) is a substantial element in macro-economic analysis. Policy makers of a country use variations of GDP for long run planning. Considering different economic conditions of a country, forecasting is a useful tool to identify the variations of GDP for planning. In this paper, quarterly GDP value during (1998-2003) is used as a base of analysis. The quarterly GDP values of the year (2004 -2005) are forecasted using Time series, Exponential smoothing and Neural network approaches. The results are compared with actual quarterly GDP value and error measurement are computed in each methods. Consequently statistical analyses are accomplished to show the best method of forecasting. We have shown that neural network approach method is the best alternative to forecast the GDP of Iran.

Keywords: Gross Domestic Product; Time Series Method; Exponential Smoothing; Neural Network; Statistical analysis. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
ftp://80.66.179.253/eut/journl/20072-2.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eut:journl:v:12:y:2007:i:2:p:19

Access Statistics for this article

Iranian Economic Review (IER) is currently edited by Dr.Hossien Abbasinejad

More articles in Iranian Economic Review (IER) from Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by [z.rahimalipour] ().