Partially Unforeseen Events. Corrections and Correcting Formulae for Forecasts
Alexander Harin ()
Expert Journal of Economics, 2014, vol. 2, issue 2, 69-79
A hypothesis of uncertain future was created and first applied in the field of utility and prospect theories. An extension of application of the hypothesis to the field of forecasting is considered in the article. The concept of inevitability of unforeseen events is a part of the hypothesis of uncertain future, namely of its first consequence. Partially unforeseen events and their role in forecasting are analyzed. Possible applications of the hypothesis in the field of forecasting are considered. Generally, preliminary preparations of forecast corrections are shown to be able, under specified conditions, to quicken the revisions of forecasts after partially unforeseen events have occurred. Particularly, correcting formulae for forecasts are proposed, including additive-multiplicative formulae. The hypothesis of uncertain future, its consequences and their possible applications are briefly reviewed.
Keywords: forecast; uncertainty; risk; utility; Ellsberg paradox (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 D81 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://economics.expertjournals.com/wp-content/upl ... harin2014pp69-79.pdf (application/pdf)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:exp:econcs:v:2:y:2014:i:2:p:69-79
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in Expert Journal of Economics from Sprint Investify
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Alin Opreana ().