The impact of carbon and fossil fuel prices on renewable energy companies? stock prices: New evidence from piece-wise approach

Sahnaz Kocoglu

ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, 2026, vol. 2026/1, issue 1, 45-66

Abstract:

This study aims to elucidate the relation between oil, gas, coal, carbon prices and the clean market index. We adopt a piece-wise linear approach and assume that each piece represents a unique structural mechanism. We utilize an optimization model that endogenously finds cut-off dates on non-stationary data along with the model coefficients for each period. Our findings highlight that the clean market index is positively related to stock market performance and negatively related to carbon and oil prices. The direction of the effects of gas and coal, on the other hand, are found to be alternating among the break periods. Moreover, predictor importance of the factors also changes through the timeline. Empirical evidence indicates that splitting the time series data into pieces according to their distinct structural characteristics improves the prediction performance and it is imperative to better understand the behavior of the renewable energy market. By doing so, we aim to provide insights for policy makers on how to utilize the leverage effect of financial markets to empower renewable energy companies.

Keywords: renewable energy companies; financial markets; carbon prices; fuel prices; structural break; piece-wise linear regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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