Possibili effetti collaterali della disinflazione. Debiti, redistribuzione e rallentamento della crescita in Italia

Daniela Marconi and Emiliano Brancaccio

STUDI ECONOMICI, 2002, vol. 2002/78, issue 78

Abstract: Collateral Affects of Disinflation in Italy (di Emiliano Brancaccio, Daniela Marconi) - ABSTRACT:The prolonged Italian disinflation ended in 1997 has often been considered as a sort of prize for collective sacrifices. We provide a different view on disinflation, based on the analysis of the redistributive phenomena and the slow growth that it may provoke. From the results of a VAR analysis we derive some empirical support to the assumption that agents are not always able to predict the inflation rate. Then, we provide some theoretical foundations to the idea that unexpected disinflation redistributes income from debtors to creditors and, by this way, could inhibit the growth rate of the economy. From this point of view, disinflation can be considered as a cause of collective sacrifices instead of a prize for them.

Date: 2002
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