Development of the Gas Market of the Eastern Regions of Russia

Anatoly Vladimirovich Lagerev () and Valentina Nikolaevna Khanaeva ()
Additional contact information
Anatoly Vladimirovich Lagerev: Melentiev Energy Systems Institute, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Valentina Nikolaevna Khanaeva: Melentiev Energy Systems Institute, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, 2019, issue 3, 46-58

Abstract: The article presents the dynamics of the gas market development for two scenarios of the economy of the Eastern regions of Russia (Eastern Siberia, Far East). We have determined rational volume of natural gas required to meet the domestic demand of the Eastern regions for gas and the volume of its exports to the NEA countries. Based on the economic estimation of efficiency of different options of export (pipeline gas, LNG), we give the prognosis of the dynamics and structure of gas export from the Eastern regions of the country. Based on the calculations using the dynamic optimization model of the country’s fuel and energy industry the following conclusions can be made for the Eastern regions of Russia till 2035: the volume of gas consumption may increase 2.1–2.3 times up to 31–35 billion m3; the export of natural gas may increase to 70–71 billion m3 at projected ‘global’ prices; the gas extraction volume may constitute 107–113 billion m3 annually. Additionally, estimating the efficiency reserve of the Russian gas export allowed prioritizing, among new export projects in the East of Russia, LNG plants (Sakhalin-LNG-2, Far Eastern LNG) and the pipeline ‘Power of Siberia’, which would allow exporting 38 billion m3 of gas to China through the pipeline and 32–33 billion m3 of LNG to the markets of the NEA countries

Keywords: natural gas; LNG; Eastern regions; long-term forecast; scenarios; production; consumption; export; markets; prices; efficiency; North-East Asia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L71 Q37 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.spatial-economics.com/images/spatial-ec ... .046-058.Lagerev.pdf (application/pdf)
http://spatial-economics.com/eng/arkhiv-nomerov/20 ... /923-SE-2019-3-46-58 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:far:spaeco:y:2019:i:3:p:46-58

DOI: 10.14530/se.2019.3.046-058

Access Statistics for this article

Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika is currently edited by Pavel Minakir

More articles in Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika from Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sergey Rogov ().