Exploring the Spatial-Temporal Relationship between Population Aging and Economic Development in China

Jiang Ling ()
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Jiang Ling: Moscow School of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University

Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, 2025, issue 1, 112-135

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between population ageing and economic factors in different regions of China. By collecting data on the proportion of the elderly population, the old-age dependency ratio, regional gross domestic product (GDP) and regional average labour productivity, the paper analyses the spatial and temporal distribution, the shift of the centre of gravity, and the spatial interactions between them in different regions of China from 2002 to 2022. The findings indicate that both population ageing indicators and economic factors demonstrate positive spatial autocorrelation, indicating that the distribution of these indicators across China’s regions is uneven, with inter-regional disparities continuing to widen.The centres of gravity of these two groups of indicators exhibit opposite movements, suggesting that the economic burden of old-age security in the northern regions is likely to increase as population ageing deepens. In addition, a positive bivariate spatial autocorrelation is evident between the two sets of indicators, although this correlation is unstable and gradually weakening.The study reveals differences in the spatial and temporal distribution and dynamics of population ageing indicators and economic indicators.To prevent developmental imbalances, future policies should focus on socio-economic growth and the rational allocation of resources for the elderly, especially in the northern regions

Keywords: population aging; economic development; kernel density curves; center of gravity method; bivariate spatial autocorrelation; region; Cnina (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 J14 O11 O53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:far:spaeco:y:2025:i:1:p:112-135

DOI: 10.14530/se.2025.1.112-135

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