Adopting Hybrid Bt Cotton: Using Interrupted Time-Series Analysis to Assess Its Effects on Farmers in Northern India

Ian Plewis
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Ian Plewis: Emeritus Professor of Social Statistics, University of Manchester, United Kingdom; ian.plewis@manchester.ac.uk.

Journal, 2019, vol. 9, issue 2, 4-23

Abstract: More than a decade has passed since Bt cotton was introduced in India. It is now possible to use official cotton statistics to assess whether Bt cotton has had positive effects on farmers’ lives and livelihoods. I use interrupted time-series analysis of data on insecticide costs, yields, and profits to examine trends before and after the introduction of Bt cotton in the States of Haryana, Punjab, and Rajasthan, in northern India. The conclusions from these analyses are mixed. The more expensive Bt hybrid seeds have lowered insecticide costs in all three States, but only in Rajasthan did yields increase. An important message of this paper is that conclusions about the effectiveness of Bt cotton are more nuanced than many researchers and commentators recognise. The paper does not refute the assertions about the success of Bt cotton, but it does show that the benefits are not evenly distributed across India.

Keywords: Bt cotton; causality; cotton statistics; insecticide; costs; interrupted time-series; northern India; profit; yield; Haryana; Punjab; Rajasthan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fas:journl:v:9:y:2019:i:2:p:4-23

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