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Labor-Market Performance and Macroeconomic Policy: Time-Varying NAIRU in the Czech Republic (in English)

Jaromir Hurnik and David Navratil ()

Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 2005, vol. 55, issue 1-2, 25-40

Abstract: During the second half of the 1990s, the Czech economy experienced a sharp increase in the unemployment rate. The authors attempt to determine whether this was caused by structural changes, worsening labor-market performance, or by the changing business-cycle position. This has direct implications for both monetary and fiscal policy. The authors use NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) estimates using time-varying NAIRU. The estimates indicate that the NAIRU increased between 1996 and 2002 by approximately 1.5 percent. Estimated increases in the NAIRU can be associated with the worsening of labor-market efficiency.

Keywords: forward-looking expectations; maximum-likelihood methods; non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment; time-varying NAIRU (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 E32 J21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:55:y:2005:i:1-2:p:25-40